A Small, Enduring Bloc

Since taking office, President Trump has lost support among most major demographic groups: women and men, older and younger voters, college graduates and non-graduates. But there are at least two big exceptions: Black and Latino voters.

Trump will lose both groups badly in November, polls show. But his support among them has not slipped. If anything, it may have risen slightly. Close to 10 percent of Black voters and roughly 30 percent of Latinos back Trump.

“I think there’s a lot of denial about this fact,” David Shor, a top Democratic data analyst, recently told New York magazine.

This enduring Black and Latino support for Republicans has had big consequences. It helped the party win victories in 2018 in Florida, Georgia and Texas, and could help decide Senate control this year.