A Big Florida Poll, Nevada Tightens, Trump on Defense: This Week in the 2020 Race

Welcome to our weekly analysis of the state of the 2020 campaign.

The week in numbers

In good news for President Trump, the Cook Political Report made two changes to its elections forecast, moving Florida from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up,” and moving Nevada from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.” Trump advisers view Florida in particular as must-win. The shifts reflect Mr. Biden’s potential weakness with Latino voters, and Trump’s poll numbers stabilizing after months of protests after the killing of George Floyd.

The Biden campaign continues to dominate the airwaves, spending $32 million on broadcast television over the past week, while the Trump campaign spent only about $10 million . Spending is nearly even on Facebook, as the Biden campaign spent $3.7 million over the past week while the Trump team spent $3.2 million on the platform.

A Monmouth University poll released this week showed Biden holding a seven-point lead over Trump among likely voters nationwide. Among all registered voters, just 37 percent said they were certain they would vote for Trump, versus 43 percent who were sure they would be voting for Biden.

But an NBC News/Marist College survey of Florida offered some rare positive news for the president on the polling front: He and Biden were tied at 48 percent each among likely voters in the state, with Trump supported by 50 percent of Latino voters (albeit a particularly hard demographic to accurately poll).

Catch me up

For the president, the week began with him defending himself against a report in The Atlantic and ended with him defending himself against a report by the veteran journalist Bob Woodward.

Both story lines — one about his alleged disrespect for the military, the other, about purposefully playing down the deadly nature of the coronavirus — threatened to undermine his standing with voters whose support he is counting on, especially servicemembers and seniors. Mr. Trump, himself, was once again the story, less than 55 days away from the election — a time when veteran political strategists said the person who the race is a referendum on is frequently the person who is losing.

Mr. Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee and former vice president, tried to capitalize on the negative news reports during an appearance in Michigan, where he blamed the president’s handling of the pandemic for the ongoing recession. In contrast, Mr. Trump, also in Michigan, tried to push a message about a great American comeback, complete with the revival of packed, old-school Trump rallies he’s now holding regularly at airport hangars in battleground states.

Nothing sticks to this president, but with just weeks left before Election Day, every negative news cycle counts a little bit more. Here’s how this one played out.